Despite an increased demand for patient care in 2021, national health spending growth has slowed to 4.6 percent compared to 9.7 percent in 2020, according to a CMS news release shared with Becker's.
The data comes from the 2021-30 National Health Expenditure report, published March 28, which is prepared by the CMS Office of the Actuary. The report shows projected health spending and enrollment for the coming decade.
One reason for the decline in health spending is the decreased funding for public health and federal programs related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The annual growth for national health spending is expected to average 5.1 percent over 2021-30. It will reach nearly $6.8 trillion by 2030. The growth of the country's gross domestic product is projected to be 5.1 percent annually over the same period. The health share of GDP is expected to be 19.6 percent in 2030, close to the 2020 share of 19.7 percent.
Spending for physician and clinical services is projected to grow an average of 5.6 percent per year from 2021-30. Spending growth for physician and clinical services is expected to have been 5.1 percent in 2021, which is slower than 2020's growth of 5.4 percent. This is primarily because of declines in supplemental funding offsetting expected use increases in Medicare and private health insurance enrollees, the news release reported.
In 2022, consumers are expected to return to their usual spending patterns, resulting in 6.2 percent growth in physician and clinical services.
The average total spending for physician and clinical services from 2025-30 is expected to see 5.5 percent growth. This spending is expected to reflect the slowing spending growth for private health insurance enrollees in response to projected slower growth in incomes earlier in the period, according to the news release.