The total shortage of physicians in the U.S. could reach between 13,500 and 86,000 physicians by 2036, according to a recent report from the Association of American Medical Colleges.
This year's "Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036" report, published March 21, predicts a lesser shortage than was originally projected in the 2021 version of the report released by the AAMC.
In 2021, the AAMC expected there to be a total shortage of between 54,100 and 139,000 physicians by 2033 — a much larger prediction than the high end of 86,000 in this year's report.
The difference is due to the consideration of hypothetical future growth in the number of medical residency positions, according to a March 21 news release from the AAMC.
"Without funding beyond current levels, the graduate medical education growth trajectories hypothesized in this year’s report will not materialize," AAMC President and CEO David Skorton, MD, said in the release. "The new data show a smaller projected overall shortfall, demonstrating that this strategy can work if we continue to invest in the physician workforce."
If these additional investments do not materialize, the anticipated shortage of physicians will be larger than this report projects, Dr. Skorton said.
"The medical education community and policymakers are making real progress in our efforts to meet the projected health care needs of our communities, but we must not be complacent," he said. "We must continue to work with Congress to build on their recent bipartisan investments in Medicare-supported graduate medical education."
Demographics, particularly population growth and aging, are the main drivers for the increasing need for physicians. By 2036, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 8.4% and the 65-and-older population is projected to grow by 34.1%, according to the release. Further, the population age 75 and older is expected to grow by 54.7%.
"If we succeed in improving access to care for our growing and aging population, which we very much hope to do, then the workforce shortages will be even larger than projected in this report," Dr. Skorton said. "Medical schools have done their part by increasing enrollment by nearly 40% since 2002. We must now expand graduate medical education so we are training more doctors to meet the nation's healthcare needs."