The 19 states facing a potential physician deficit by 2028

There are 19 states that are projected to have a shortage of physicians by 2028, according to a report from Mercer, a consulting firm.

California, New York and Texas are expected to have the largest deficits, with each state potentially having a shortage of more than 2,000 physicians by 2028. 

The report used historical data up to 2023, applying a linear autoregressive model based on historical supply data for each occupation and geography to project surpluses and shortages. 

Here are the states that are projected to have a shortage of physicians by 2028:

Note: This list includes the District of Columbia. States are listed in order of largest projected shortage.

Texas: 2,830

New York: 2,706

California: 2,580

Georgia: 850

Missouri: 634

Utah: 525

North Carolina: 393

Oregon: 387

Alabama: 380

Kentucky: 358

South Carolina: 243

Oklahoma: 195

West Virginia: 160

Michigan: 111

Maine: 66

Vermont: 58

District of Columbia: 54

South Dakota: 19

New Mexico: 14

Hawaii: 9

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