By the end of 2024, the U.S. is predicted to see a physician shortage of 64,000, according to research from McKinsey & Company, published Sept. 10.
The physician deficit could grow to 86,000 by 2036. One large contributor to the growing deficit is the average age of practicing physicians. Currently, some 20% of clinical physicians are aged 65 years or older, putting organizations in a position to soon lose a number of practitioners to retirement.
Currently, 35% of physicians plan to leave their current roles in the next five years, according to the McKinsey survey, which polled 631 physicians.
Of that 35%, 60% are planning to leave clinical practice entirely, 59% are aged 54 to 64 and say that early retirement or leaving the care-delivery workforce is their most likely next step. An additional 13% prefer to move to an administrative role within the care delivery workforce.
Of survey respondents, 58% noted that their desire to change jobs has grown in recent years, up from 43% in the previous survey.
Physicians currently want to leave their roles for a variety of reasons, including a desire for more pay (69%), the demanding nature of the job (66%), emotional toll (65%) and the physical toll of work (61%).
Physicians are also feeling burnt out by a high workload and lack of control over their own schedules. Fifty-two percent of respondents who say they work more than 60 hours per week report experiencing burnout, while 66% of those dissatisfied with their schedules say the same.
More respondents who are unhappy about their schedules say they are likely to leave in the next year (32%) versus those working more than 60 hours (23%).
Additionally, physicians indicate a large desire to be involved in decision making at their systems. More than 60% of physician respondents expect to at least be consulted or have a vote on major decisions. This was consistent across various types of decisions, such as patient care quality, culture and strategic priorities, as well as across respondents employed by health systems and large physician groups.
While physician shortages are expected to get worse if systems continue with the status quo, McKinsey identified four potential ways organizations can retain more workers.
First is to increase compensation and incentive structures. Second is to pay attention to physician's lifestyle needs, while third is to involve physicians in key decision making. Lastly, systems should ensure that they have a robust support system for staffers.