Former Trump Administration White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and Former Obama Administration Senior Advisor David Axelrod engaged in a lively, heated debate on topics like the midterm elections, working with presidents and possible scenarios for 2020.
Mr. Priebus and Mr. Axelrod discussed a gauntlet of hot-button political topics at Becker's ASC 25th Annual Meeting: The Business and Operations of ASCs, Oct. 18 in Chicago. Becker's Healthcare Publisher Scott Becker moderated the debate.
Note: Responses were lightly edited for style and clarity, and responses were presented in order.
On the midterm elections:
David Axelrod: I think the odds Democrats take the House are pretty high. I think the odds Republicans retain the Senate are pretty high. But if Democrats take the House, I think that's going to make for a different equation [over the next two years. Democrats in the House] can go one of two ways. One is that Democrats are judicious about the role they play. They're aggressive about their oversight, but they don't go overboard.
I think the margin of their victory will have something to do with how far Democrats go. If the margin is small, I think the discipline will be greater, in that the people that won these marginal seats will have greater influence in their decision-making. If it's a bigger win? Maybe not so much.
Reince Priebus: Right now, if the election were held today, I think the Democrats would win the House, [and] Republicans add two or three seats to the Senate. But the trend of where we are today as compared to three weeks ago is that the political environment is better for the Republicans based on a few things:
No. 1: Kavanaugh. ... The Democrats went way too far, politically, in the environment we're in. That has caused Republicans to become far more engaged than they would've been, which has caused polling on the Republican side to get to a place where the Senate is out of reach, and it's [caused] Democrat seats in the House they thought were easy to not be so easy.
The second thing is the president's approval rating has ticked up and the generic ballot [split between Republicans and Democrats] is far [wider] even then the Democrats want it to be.
On President Donald Trump:
RP: I don't think most presidents are run-of-the-mill, Midwest-normal. I think everyone, especially if they're successful, [has] things about them that are a little quirky and a little different. There are things that appeal to the American people that allow them to stand out differently from others. But yeah, he's a fun guy, an engaging person.
In a crowd or an event like this, if he was in front of you answering questions and taking pictures and shaking hands, you'd all leave and go, 'You know what? That person is a really cool guy.' You'd fall in love with him. You would. He's good at it. He's good with people. He's in a profession where being good with people and walking tables and shaking hands [is important] – that's who Donald Trump is.
On Former President Barack Obama:
DA: We had this quaint idea – and he did – that the words of a president could start armies marching and markets tumbling, so we better choose them with some care, not to say we never made mistakes. … Reince said presidents aren't just 'Midwestern-normal.' I think Obama was as close to that as can be. I actually think George W. Bush was a normal,down-to-Earth kind of guy.I always call him the most down-to-earth, extraordinary person I know because he was very down-to-earth, very unflappable – famously so. Whenever we had a bad day – and we had bad days – he was always the guy who picked up the group.
On the 2020 election:
DA: You're going to see a cavalcade of candidates. For those of you who are weary of campaign 2018, do not despair; campaign 2020 will begin on Nov. 7. … [Former Vice President Joe] Biden is the leading candidate right now, the second most popular candidate in the Democratic party is [Sen. Bernie] Sanders. … For Biden to be successful, he is going to have to run a vigorous campaign to prove that he is up to the job.
RP: My prediction is the Democratic primary is going to make the Republican primary look like child's play. The difference is … the Democrats are structured differently than the Republicans. The RNC had an enormous amount of resources, hundreds of millions of dollars – a $200 million database. We had the capability of keeping 16 people pretty much in line.