From physician shortages to increasing consolidation, here are six trends raising concerns among GI specialists:
1. Aging population
As of 2024, one in six Americans are aged 65 and older, a share projected to rise to approximately 1 in 4 by 2035, according to a report from consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
With aging comes a growing demand for geriatric care, chronic disease management and oncology-related services, yet the supply of trained gastroenterologists may not keep pace, Sheldon Taub, MD, a gastroenterologist at Jupiter (Fla.) Medical Center, told Becker’s.
2. Physician burnout
Despite a slight decline in physician burnout in recent years, industry concerns persist. Administrative burdens and increasing patient loads continue to drive stress and dissatisfaction among physicians.
Combined with the aging population and physician shortages, burnout will play a “very important” role in shaping workforce trends, Dr. Taub said.
3. Primary care shortage
The U.S. could face a projected shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036, according to 2024 data from the American Association of Medical Colleges.
The scarcity of primary care physicians, in particular, is expected to ripple through the healthcare system, especially amid declining reimbursements, Pradnya Mitroo, MD, president of Fresno (Calif.) Digestive Health, told Becker’s.
“I think there will be significant physician shortages in many areas, especially primary care, as medical students choose specialties over primary care in increasing numbers,” she said. “Compensation will become a significant factor in the specialty they choose.”
4. Potential visa restrictions
International medical graduates play a critical role in mitigating U.S. physician shortages. However, potential changes to visa policies could restrict their ability to practice in the country, worsening the crisis, Dr. Taub continued.
“I am anticipating visa restrictions on foreign medical graduates will have an impact on them coming to the United States, thus decreasing medical resources,” he said.
5. Consolidation
As hospitals and healthcare systems consolidate, physicians may experience reduced autonomy, increased pressure to meet productivity targets and shifts in job satisfaction.
According to Dr. Taub, “mergers between hospitals and healthcare systems may reduce physician autonomy and impact job satisfaction.”
6. Less office time
With the growing emphasis on procedures over traditional office visits, physicians are finding themselves spending less time in consultations and more time in procedure rooms, Dr. Mitroo said. This trend may increase reliance on nurse practitioners and physician assistants to handle routine follow-ups, potentially changing the nature of patient-physician relationships.
“We will see more subspecialists spending more of their time in procedures and less time in the office,” she said. “There will be an increased reliance on NPs and PAs to see follow-ups in the office while physicians see only the most complicated patients.”
